A Peek Inside the Black Box of Catastrophe Models

Juniper Re’s latest catastrophe modeling research provides an in-depth look at the six hurricane models currently accepted under the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) 2023 standards. Drawing on more than 2,600 pages of publicly available model submission materials, the analysis compares model outputs and underlying assumptions across a range of areas, including historical loss validation, hurricane frequency, wind hazard, geographic loss distribution, building vulnerability, and mitigation impacts.

The findings highlight the meaningful differences that can exist between catastrophe models, even when applied to the same industry exposure. From variations in losses and regional risk concentrations to differences in vulnerability and mitigation assumptions, the research underscores the importance of understanding what drives model results rather than relying on a single view of risk. Juniper Re helps clients navigate these complexities, develop a more informed perspective on catastrophe risk, and make better-supported decisions around pricing, portfolio management, and overall risk strategy.

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